By Adam Price, Vice President – PNT Simulation at Spirent
the critical infrastructure of our modern world. As we enter 2025 though, a growing number of chipset developers, equipment–makers, and industry organizations are poised to rewrite the rules for GNSS security and efficiency—sometimes literally.
In our work with stakeholders across the PNT value chain, Spirent often gets a sneak
preview of what’s in store for the industry. Based on hundreds of testing and validation
engagements we conducted last year, here are five key trends to watch in 2025.
From autonomous vehicles to precision agriculture, surveying to search and rescue, PNT
has become the backbone of many modern technologies. But as it expands to more use
cases, PNT operating environments keep growing more complex. It’s difficult enough, for
example, to ensure good GNSS performance in consumer smartwatches. Achieving that in
self–driving cars–where system errors can be catastrophic—is a much bigger challenge.
The only way to meet it is with exhaustive testing, exploring a much wider range of possible scenarios that the system might encounter in live deployments. But as the required number of test cases grows, it is becoming increasingly expensive and time–consuming to explore every possible scenario via hardware testing alone. Instead, more developers and integrators are expanding their use of model–based system engineering. And they’re starting to apply software–based testing much earlier in the development process.
By building system models in software and using lifelike simulations of operating
environments, developers in fast–moving industries can run thousands of test scenarios in
parallel. They can explore rare but potentially serious corner cases virtually and identify
issues long before physical manufacturing begins. (In a virtual model, for example, it’s
possible to investigate the effects of re–positioning an antenna in minutes. Answering such
questions via iterative hardware cycles can take weeks.) Most important, by “shifting left”—
applying synthetic modeling to test more scenarios, earlier in development—organizations
can conduct more extensive testing in a fraction of the time, at a fraction of the cost.
2. NAVWAR threats will become a major industry focus.
Practically every major military conflict in the world today (and many minor ones) features
jamming and spoofing to disrupt enemy navigation systems. Increasingly, however, these
disruptions extend far beyond conflict zones, affecting the commercial sector as well.
NAVWAR threats have become particularly urgent for civil aviation (see next section). But
GNSS signal vulnerabilities are becoming a significant problem for just about every
application using PNT data. It’s easy to appreciate how GNSS jamming could impede
search and rescue efforts after a disaster, or how spoofing a drone’s location could cause
accidents. But as more critical infrastructure and enterprise systems rely on PNT systems,
NAVWAR threats are disrupting a widening range of “business–critical” use cases too, from
energy grids to banking systems to logistics platforms. This year, regulators and industry
groups will take more significant, coordinated action to improve GNSS resiliency to these
threats.
3. PNT spoofing will become a top priority for civil aviation.
No commercial sector faces a more obvious risk from GNSS disruption than civil and
commercial aviation. Commercial crews continually practice operating aircraft safely even
when navigation systems are unavailable (due to jamming or any other issue). But spoofing represents a more pernicious threat, as navigation systems may continue functioning, apparently, normally—just outputting incorrect PNT data (Figure 1).
number is growing. One analysis found the number of affected flights grew by 400% in the
first half of 2024 alone. Clearly, this is no longer a hypothetical problem; it’s an urgent
issue. This year we’ll start seeing decisive action in the face of these threats.
Recently, more than 950 airlines, operators, industry groups, and technology stakeholders
formed an international GPS Spoofing Working Group. Industry stakeholders are also
evaluating the suitability of existing and planned technologies, such as controlled
reception pattern antennas (CRPAs) and secure authenticated signals, to help mitigate the
threat. Some companies also now offer GNSS spoofing alerting services that notify air
crews, ground crews, and airline operators when spoofing is detected in a specified area,
similar to alerts for extreme weather or turbulence. Such services can also provide a wealth
of related information such as the reported impacts of the spoofing on other aircraft.
4. Expect new PNT regulations.
Clearly, the integrity of PNT data such as GNSS signals is increasingly under threat.
Additionally, we know that ensuring reliable and precise PNT is becoming more important—
both for the safe operation of existing systems and to enable next–generation technologies.
Given these factors, we expect to see more governments and industry bodies evaluating
increased regulatory oversight of these systems in the coming year.
positioning GB/T). Based on exploratory activity we’re seeing worldwide, future regulations
will likely go even farther, addressing integration and testing protocols to ensure that
systems meet stringent resiliency benchmarks. We will also see regulators look to broaden
existing standards, like RTCA DO–229, to address new threats in PNT applications affecting
everything from airliners to consumer electronics.
As per the above, attacks on the integrity of PNT systems may prove to be the most
important industry challenge in 2025. The good news is that we already have powerful tools to help combat the threat; we just need to take full advantage of them.
Modern GNSS receivers are incredibly sophisticated. Chipset developers have never stood
still, and modern chipsets can provide a wealth of data that could be better utilized. Until
now, most integrators just didn’t use most of that data because their products didn’t need
to. But it contains insights that can provide immediate help in improving system resiliency,
even without adding new hardware or encryption.
these capabilities. By reading more chipset data into their systems and wrapping their own
algorithms around it, developers can detect when PNT data just doesn’t add up. (For
example, a system might detect that a GNSS signal is much stronger than it should be
based on the elevation angle of the transmitting satellite.) These capabilities already exist
in many GNSS receivers. But this year, more integrators will start fully utilizing them to
make their products more robust.
 technologies like GPS/GNSS have become part ofthe critical infrastructure of our modern world. As we enter 2025 though, a growing number of chipset developers, equipment-makers, and industry organizations are poised to rewrite the rules for GNSS security and efficiency—sometimes literally.){kind=link}